Get the betting insights ahead of UFC 300 from Jon Anik, Henry Cejudo and Nick Kalikas brough to you by DraftKings Sportsbook.
well buckle up ladies and gentlemen because UFC 400 is probably not going to happen until like 2032 welcome in UFC 300 fight week is upon us this is our UFC 300 betting preview presented by DraftKings John anak alongside the future UFC Hall of Famer Triple C Henry cejudo and of course our UFC batting analyst Nick kikas my man Triple C it’s nice to see you brother sun shining on your face crazy to think back to November of 1993 when all of this noise began and now here we are 300 numbered cards later UFC 300 beckons this weekend my man yeah absolutely crazy man to go back and think about since 1993 I mean 300 UFC events like pay-per-view events that’s not just events pay-per-view events it’s absolutely surreal how far and how long this sport has gone and I’m just I’m just got to be a part of it John you played a big role every step of the way Nick I’m curious what it’s been like for you as a guy who lives in Las Vegas I think a lot of us would hearken back to UFC 100 in July of 2009 I remember I was there covering it with ESPN MMA live and then you think about July 2016 UFC 200 now eight years later it feels like we’re in a totally different place than we were for UFC 200 it’s truly amazing I don’t think from the gambling aspect I’ve been handicapping fights since early 2000s and I never would imagine we’d see where we are today the point where everything is with the UFC being Ultra popular and just the machine that they are right now it’s it’s awesome to be a part of it all and the gambling is honestly keeping up and it’s competitive with other mainstream sports that’s how important MMA and UFC betting is today there’s no doubt a lot of bookmakers are loving all the UFC action they’re taking 40 plus Saturday nights a year and of course the DraftKings and UFC partnership launched in 2021 it’s been all systems go ever since and I’ve talked to a lot of fans at least on the internet social media they’re going to bet all 13 fights this weekend so to that end let us get into the pageant that is UFC 300 this show brought to you by draftking Sportsbook where new customers can download the DK Sportsbook app use code UFC and claim $150 in bonus bets when you make your first bet of $5 or more draftking sports book The Crown is yours and of course we’re putting Triple C in the goddamn center of the three box there let’s get into the main event Henry if we could for the Undisputed light heavyweight championship Alex poda is minus 130 Jamal Hill plus 110 as he comes back from that Achilles injury about 73% the money and the total bets placed thus far have been on Alex poda how do you see the main event playing out and do you see it as close as the betting line is at least right now um yeah I I I think the betting line is pretty is pretty straight on I think if there’s one person that really has to make that adjustment every time I analyze a fight and a break a fight down I try to see who is it that really has to make the adjustment according to according to the power and the person with the power right now that’s the most dangerous guy is it is Alex beta so that means what is it that what is it that a guy like jumah who is going to have to do can he play the movement game can he play The Distance game can he or could he go in there and go straight punches and go big right away because we saw in the past a guy like Al Alex P does get hurt early but if you allowed him to get warm you allowed him to get better he only starts getting better we saw it against israa and obviously adraa did knock him out in their last outing but that being said the dude is a zombie you talking about somebody that could really take a hit and then come back and obviously does a really good job of utilizing that kick and but but the only thing that I will say John people don’t bring this up Jamal Hill is a southpaw I mean that right kick that that that there’s two things you have to watch out with Alex Pera that’s his right kick and his left hook the r you can be okay and every once in a while he has that jumping knee where he could potentially knock you out but those are the two arsenals that a guy like Alex beta has now Jamal Hill is going to have to play that plan B he’s going to have to dismantle him with movement distance and eventually when he goes in he’s going to have to take more risk yeah Nick will you have a wager on the fight even if you don’t have one active right now I will and for me it seems like it’s a dog or pass situation a lot of question marks surrounding this fight for sure it should be a Striker versus Striker match up both these guys like to bang both these guys have decent takedown defense if there’s a back pocket that you could utilize wrestling though it’s on the hillside I think he might try to mix things up a little bit more so but of course working with Glover you know that banetta is going to be ready for anything that he brings to the table so but I do expect this to be a Striker versus Striker matchup and let’s not underestimate the hill power Hill has a lot of knockout power in his own right man we’ve seen him put people to sleep left and right so you have two Dynamic Strikers that really if they land clean it’s anybody’s fight Henry from a betting perspective when you see Alex P as a slight favorite Jamal Hill is a slight Underdog forced to make a predi from a betting standpoint who do you like Saturday night yeah well I’m going to give the edge more likely to to the you know to the to the champ to the champ because when you hear guys like Jamal Hill saying oh I’m not even going to russle I’m not going to do that I believe him and the thing is if if if you haven’t wrestled before or if you haven’t done your whole training cap with wrestling it’s different I tell you that even as a wrestler like you have to embrace yourself and really get into this six month of just doing nothing but wrestling and really adding that you can’t just say oh I’m going to wrestle and it’s going to happen in the fight it’s not true so for that reason John I like Jamal Hill I really do I think I think if there’s any way he could potentially get it done he gets it done at the beginning of the first or the beginning of the second but other than that that fight that fight continu to keep going just on that Alex Pera train so for that reason the edge I ain’t trying to jump on nobody’s bandwagon but I got to give it to Alex beta all right let’s get to the co-headliner because you know Jang way Lee exceedingly well and thus far the most total bets on draftking Sportsbook have come in on Jang way Lee She’s a minus 500 favorite here against her Chinese countrywoman Yan xaan who is the plus 380 Underdog right now what are your thoughts on this as a pressure spot for an athlete that you know all too well Henry and John yeah no for sure and by the way I just want to compliment you on your Chinese John no I’ve had the the honor to work with wle and you know every time she she she has a fight coming up She’ll always like like hey Henry what do you think so you always like like a lot of these guys who have been had the ability to kind of Coach they’ve always hit me up right before the fights hey what do you think about this game plan what do you what would you add what would you take away and I think with Jan way Le she’s such a student of the game she reminds me of different stylistically but she reminds me of lot like khabib Nera made off where they just Eat Sleep Train every every conversation is just about fighting her her distance has gone better her uh her diversity of using her wrestling as she did against Amanda lamos where you thinking Way’s going to end turn around a strike to eventually go in there and go for the takedowns I mean she’s added a lot of new tactics to her game and she’s only getting better John I believe you know with with Yan being in there obvious she’s a newcomer but she’s also fighting for that UFC championship and a lot of guys when they fight for the championship for their first time they’re widey yeah you know but do she have that chip on her shoulder if she does have have that chip on her shoulder it could it could work for her but I just think J wi Lee in every area is just a little too much yeah no I think that’s a great assessment as usual out of Henry cejudo I think Yan shaan has all of that Championship hunger and that proverbial chip on her shoulder Nick plus 380 right now do you see any value whatsoever on the Chinese Challenger Yan shaana well let me ask Henry this is she training with you for this Camp because I think a lot of inquiring minds would like to know that did she have a camp with you this time no no she didn’t no she she didn’t trade for me in this Camp no okay well you know what that makes a little bit of an impact because there’s a lot of respect to cejudo a lot of respect to his training because he’s obviously shown what he’s capable of doing and getting fighters to the next level so I think yeah now that we said that that might impact the market a little bit not in a major way but a small way and I do think there’s value on Yan we’re talking about pricing here I’m not going to argue that Jang is not a tremendous fighter she’s special everything that Henry said is 100% accurate but you are facing a hungry Challenger like you guys said and Yan if she could stick stuff the takedowns she’s going to be a threat on the feet she’s got nasty power she’s got that confidence she’s got that swag she’s fought a lot of decent competition as of late too she’s earned this title shot so for me it’s about price points and I can’t lay almost five to one on J R now I think if you have to put something on the dog or kind of leave it alone yeah also got to remember parlay City dude everybody’s gonna be on that side you know thr and a parlays so it’s never a bad thing to kind of go against the grain there either yeah Jean Way will probably up to minus 600 by the time we get off the air so that’s the picture on the strawweight championship fight and I do have to say in closing on that you got to feel like Jean Way Lee wants this one in the worst way I mean she’s had a lot of big wins Yan Y and jaek two-time UFC strawweight champion you don’t want to lose to your countrywoman Yan xaam we’ll see how it goes in the co-headliner this weekend all right Triple C featured bout for the BMF title drum roll please Justin gatei minus 175 Max Holloway is plus 145 this fight is taking two-way action right now as expected but at one point gatei was north of minus 200 now down to minus 175 Henry if if you do like Justin gatei price is getting sweeter by the minute your thoughts on this one and I like them both I like them both if there’s one fight that maybe you might want to go for the underdog it is a s Max Holloway why is because the dude has a gas tank too the dude has durability the dude has volume to his fight style but he’s also going up against a guy like Justin gatei a risk taker a guy who likes to throw out the kitchen seek a guy who kicks the legs and there’s one thing where I feel like G is really going to attack you know what he’s going to do he’s going to kick the leg he’s going to kick the leg he’s going to kick the leg and then eventually he’s going to start letting the hands go and who knows you may be seeing high kicks to the Head too Justin gii has only gotten better and not just St if you watch his La his prior fight other than fighting poier against Michael Chandler he brought some of that folk Star Wrestling in and I think what that matters I think there’s there’s a there’s a couple tricks that a guy like just gatei should have it’s a his wrestling and obviously his leg kicks but I think the biggest surprise that he could give people is going to be the wrestling but that being said he’s also a knuckle he’s also when he’s in there he’s he’s going to do what whatever it is that Justin gate wants to do if I’m a Max Holloway Sho you know what I’m thinking I’m going to read a little bit of I’m going to look into a little bit of what khabib did pressure him take away that kick make him fight backwards and who knows maybe look for some of that wrestle cuz remember have to keep in mind too Holloway could wrestle as well and as we saw a guy like just engi against uh Charles Oliva he was kind of like a turtle on his back and that’s one thing if I am Holloway I am looking to expose but John that being said I just think the vicious power of just engaging the fact that he’s a risk taker I think I I got to go with Justin gatei I didn’t think there was a way for me to actually get more excited for Jus gachi and Max Holloway and that Triple C breakdown actually got me more excited for the fight Nick kikas your thoughts on this matchup that’s seemingly is taking action on both sides at least right now as it should you know Holloway’s going to get the respect he’s going to get the betting action from Sharps and public betters I mean he’s deserved that to this point the only thing concerning everybody I think that are kind of on the holay side is if you look back at that Dustin porier fight when he made that jump up he wasn’t able to absorb that punishment quite as good in the lightweight Division I mean porier is a heavy hitter gaii also a heavy hitter so that’s going to be the interesting aspect is he going to be able to take some of that punishment is he able to handle those leg kicks because these guys can bang but he’s going to be a little bit Slicker he’s going to be a little bit more Technical and he’s a sniper man and gatei leaves a lot of openings at times too as we know so for me our producer just kind of threw in there the under is three and a half plus money right now and I think that’s where you might want to look because I think a lot of people are expecting the durability of both guys right Hollow Ultra durable you know that he’s hard to finish and then the other side of things gate he’s Ultra durable too but again you have the sniper that’s going to be in this fight that’s Holloway and you have the other side of it with gatei has that tremendous knockout our I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a finish in this fight I would kind of lean towards some plus money on that under I think it’s a blessing and disguise that I’m contractually prevented from betting on this stuff man I think I would lose money not that I’m not that I’m doing all that well on Major League Baseball early but I can see you’re good Nick n you’re making me think too now man that’s a good analysis all right we got a couple more fights I want to get into quickly on this lightweight matchup between Arman Saran and Charles dub Bronx Ola what a tremendous fight at least on paper ton of movement on the betting front Arman Saran opened up as an even money Underdog Nick we’ll start with you on this one he’s now the minus 225 betting favorite Charlie olives comes back at plus 185 your thoughts the oddsmaker open him a slight Underdog because they just respected the Aliva side things meaning that they thought the money would flood in his way too especially in this matchup and they were wrong early on the market took seroin into the favorite for a good reason he should be favored here I personally feel like the price is a little bit too short at minus 225 whatever the case may be the Market’s out there you know back and forth around that 200 Mark I think it’s a little bit short I understand oler is a dangerous guy so you have to respect that he can finish you on the ground he can finish you on the feet as we know that but I think cukan matches up extremely well anywhere this fight takes place I think he’s not going to get out wrestled here on the ground I don’t think he’s gonna get caught up in Olivera submission game and on the feet he is the more durable fighter so for me I do think it’s right sometimes it looks when you see an offline like this or something crazy a head scratching line it’s more times right than not and I think that’s the case here and we’re going to see a flood of money come in in alera Henry cejudo what do he have for us on Charles Olivera and Arman sakian yeah first of all it is super hard to doubt or count out a guy who has the most finishes in UFC history a guy who has beaten a Justin gatei a guy who has knocked out a Michael Chandler a guy who has done some amazing thing in sports but that being said Charles Olivera also makes a lot of mistakes there’s time where I see him I’m just like d you’re such a technical fighter and you decide to fight I’m like that throws me off a little bit dude if I had your skills I’d be technical the whole that there’s times where I do have to fight but the ability that he has I don’t think sometimes he really recognizes all those crazy limbs that he has so decides to get into that fight and a lot of that’s just just pretty much shoot boox in Brazilian style but you’re getting a very basic and Armen Surin who has great wrestling who’s already been there with Isam makach he has a certain self-belief in him and I just feel like he’s just a little too basic he to stay basic to fight against Charles olera so I can see a wrestling Fest whatever it is I have armaan by decision and convicted Le Henry cejudo on the Arman sarakan side all right last fight I just wanted to touch on from one Olympic gold medalist to another Henry Kayla Harrison two-time Olympic Judo gold medalist she’s a minus 455 betting favorite against Holly Holm as she makes her debut this weekend now certainly there is the fight before the fight and I know the MMA masses are very curious to get your thoughts on her making 136 pounds this Friday uh but what are your expectations for Kayla in this Division and in this promotion and that’s the biggest question there I mean obviously she’s in her 30s you want to how is she uh uh John I’ll get that for you right here in front of me I think she’s actually not actually I remember when I was prepping her earlier today and I was thinking myself she’s not as old as I thought I think 32 okay 32 32 years young and plus remember when she was fighting at pfl she was 100 she was fighting at 155 lbs keep in mind too Holly Holmes has fought jocas Holly Holmes has footwork if you watch that fight with the Ronda Rousey it changed a little bit and you’ll think a little bit different cuz why it was movement and not just that but Kayla Kayla Harrison is really good on the ground but she get it to the ground some of her entries into takos are very very suspect and I tell you what it’s not like even though Holly Holmes is is uh is an incredible an incredible boxer she doesn’t have that crazy knockout power so you might be seeing her dance around and move around to eventually maybe start cutting the legs maybe just use the movement but the biggest thing for a girl like Kayla Harrison is could she disguise her entries because I’ll be honest with you John I’m not I’m not too impressed when she’s on top 100% dude I wouldn’t want to be onp I wouldn’t want her on top of me but that being said you’re going to have to find those tasers you’re going to have to take her down once she’s on top all gravy but could she get her down is my biggest question she has acknowledged Holly holm’s IQ Holly Holm is 42 years of age Nick Kayla Harrison is 33 she’ll be 34 in July to Henry’s Point Holly holm’s last bonus came for a fight of the night with Chris cyborg in 2017 so she hasn’t necessarily showcased other worldly power inside the Octagon but I think at 42 44 46 she’s still a difficult proposition any thoughts from you on uh the prohibitively favored Kayla Harrison here against the preacher daughter Holly Holm yeah you have two of the best female Combat Sports athletes of all time going head to-head here I I think people don’t realize that because maybe Kayla is not in the UFC Spotlight but of course home before she came to the UFC the boxing background she has so this is a tremendous fight man but make no mistake I I have tons of respect for Harrison she doesn’t even need this but she didn’t need to come to the UFC she was doing just fine collecting those paychecks running through people on pfl let’s face let’s be honest here she was doing okay there she wanted to test herself I have the ultimate respect for her coming over into the best organization of the world and trying to fight the best of the best and cutting the weight all the stuff that comes along with it man how could you not respect her and Henry nailed it if she gets a fight to the floor I think there’s a potential for a finish an early finish that’s why you’re seeing the round total right now at DraftKings around two and a half a lot of people think that’s short because you think oh my gosh this has easy could go five rounds whatever the case may be you know back and forth you know a type of uh the distance I should say um with a back and forth type of fight but I don’t think that’s going to be the case I think that if Kayla gets her down she could finish on the ground here so it all comes down to the takedown defense of Holm so for me it’s hard to lay the chalk because I respect Holly a lot the public is going to be kind of all over this fight back and forth I think it’s going to be more of a doger pass situation for the public but I do think that the chalk gets it done here and I like the Harrison side all right before we get on out of here Henry cejudo we need Triple C’s keys for a winning night for betters at UFC 300 now seems like you’re pretty bullish on Arman San you like Justin gatei what are your keys for these draftking sports book betters to have a good night at UFC 300 um the KE like what do you mean John well you could just give us a best bet or a pick to click but what do you think people need to do when they’re attacking the sports book this weekend like I would suggest to fans don’t bet all 13 fights and start there right try to pair it down to just a few resist the temptation to have 13 straight Wagers right right I think the fights I think I think the fights that look really appetizing to me is that with the fight that we just talked about I think people are are really counting out a holly Holmes you know what I’m saying she’s been in the game this is this is this is Kayla’s first fight in the UFC and the other one to me is also that hallway fight that hallay fight and uh and and gatei as dangerous as as Justin is if Hollow is a gamer too if hallay could push that pace and and and not get L kicked his probabilities of winning actually go up and obviously with je we Lee maybe you go heavy on a girl like Jean Way Lee a huge a huge favorite who’s very Dynamic but that being said those are the three fights those are the three keys I know you wanted keys but those are the three fights that I’m looking at that if I could bet if Uncle Dana would let me bet well dud we appreciate you bringing your a and not your C game today Nick kikas before we let you fly on out of here of all the fights we’ve discussed today is there anything particularly appetizing on the board here right now well first of all let me just clarify the home and Harrison fight is is three rounds not five rounds so it would go three round distance that’s what so I had to correct that real quick too but again most people think it would go three uh you know what out the fights that we discussed there’s so many intriguing matchups man but I think the main event I mean looking for that heavy light heavyweight strap and seeing who the winner is seeing if Jamal Hill bounces back and gets the most impressive win of his career or petta has been such a special fighter to this point if he keeps that win streak rolling and just doing accomplishing special things so for me it’s probably the main event such a great fight but from top to bottom dude you got got bar Brandt figuro opening the card for crying out loud how amazing is that I mean let’s let’s not forget so stacked from top to bottom I love this card it is crazy that Henry cejudo’s good friend the former two-time UFC flyweight Champion Davidson figuro is gonna walk out at 3:15 in the afternoon I mean that is absolutely insane I actually might walk out with him uh John how about it how about it all right well draftking sports book is your home for all the action this weekend don’t forget also the point spread bets are out as well total scores at the end of the fight so that’s something worth looking into as well we got to get on out of here that’s going to do it for the 300 betting preview it all goes down Saturday Night Live on ESPN plus pay-per-view thanks to our producer Cody Merill for putting it all together forck kikas and Henry cejudo I’m John anex and so long for now don’t text and drive we’ll see you Saturday Night Live on [Music] paper UFC 300 is here and DraftKings doesn’t want you to wait one more second to get in on the action new customers take down 150 instantly in bonus bets when you bet just $5 it may have taken them countless hours to get to the Octagon but in an instant you get paid download the draftking Sportsbook app sign up with the promo code and turn five bucks into 150 instantly in bonus bets the crown is yours [Music] [Applause] d